Toronto has a huge problem. It’s not just the issue that they are down 3-0 in the second round of the playoffs against the Florida Panthers, and have a huge hill to climb to come back from that deficit (which has only been done by four teams in the 100+ NHL History, and that includes the 1942 Maple Leafs). But they also have to decide what to do with their own roster, given how poorly their team has performed in this series, after finally beating the Tampa Bay Lightning, in convincing fashion and making it out of the first round in 19 years.
Their current GM (Kyle Dubas), who took over on May 11, 2018, has made many interesting changes (trades, signings) over his tenure, and you can agree or disagree with his choices (losing Kadri for Kerfoot, not protecting Jared McCann in the Seattle expansion, trading for Ryan O’Reilly to solidify the center depth). But since becoming General Manager, the Maple Leafs own a record of 171-88-31 with a .641 points percentage in the regular season. That’s a pretty strong record. But the regular season doens’t have as much merit as the playoff post season, and as it stands, Kyle doesn’t have a contract after this season, and there are a lot of other jobs out there looking for a new GM and a fresh perspective (Calgary and Pittsburgh come to mind). Do they extend him, or does Kyle himself walk? Will he want to stick around? From all reports around the league, Kyle loves being the GM for the Maple Leafs and loves being part of the organization, as they are top notch. But does MLSE want a change and to add a new voice or will they shake things up. Time will tell. The problem Dubas, or any new GM coming in will have, is that their big stars: Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, haven’t exactly performed in this series. They have combined for 0 goals in this series vs the Panthers. This is unacceptable where your best players need to be your best players, and especially since they are being paid make up almost half of the cap salary (we can also include Morgan Reilly in that discussion as he also took a big cut of the pie).
As Toronto fans remember, they were sold on the idea, by Dubas himself in an interview “We can and we will” referring to signing the big 4 and focusing all on skill to reach and win the Stanley Cup. But 7 years into the project things aren’t progressing as fast, with only one first round exit. So what do they do? Do they trade one of them (might be hard to move Marner or Tavares) and then do you want to extend Auston Matthews or William Nylander, when it becomes possible on July 1. If so, what kind of contract are they looking for. Toronto fans remember the saga that was the William Nylander (and Mitch Marner) contract negotiations. Nylander held off until he got what he wanted (and it came down to the wire). And because of the issues with the big 5 making up almost half of the cap salary, makes it challenging to fill the other roles with guys on cheap, bargain contracts. Therefore, there will be again lots of discussions, theories, and speculations about whether Matthews and Nylander wish to stay or go somewhere else to try and win a Stanley Cup, or if they will be traded to shake things up (I mean I can’t see Matthews going as he is a dynamic goal scorer and player). Therefore there are big problems that Toronto has to figure out and they only have a short summer window. It also doesn’t help that in their (Atlantic) division, teams like Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit are on the rise and can possibly make the playoffs next season.
What I do believe is that the big 4 have to perform better and bring a new level to their game, something often seen with elite teams in the playoffs, especially those that go on long runs (like the Panthers). They need to be crisp, physical, battle for every piece of the ice and just use their skills to put up big goals. But that sometimes isn’t always possible. I will certainly be watching the game tonight and the off-season for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but again questions to ask, and something Evan and I will be monitoring: will Toronto stay the same or will there be a big shake up. Will one of the core be traded or will they run it back (given how successful they are in the regular season).
One thing that is true is that, unless Toronto turns it around tonight, there will be a lot of questions facing the organization, and it may not be Dubas or Shanahan who are answering them. Thoughts?
Strong game in game 4 to even series. Marner with a strong game. IMO , Dubas stays but one of the big 4 forwards will be moved out. But who? Nylander I am betting.